Future scenarios

Introduction

Connected Places Catapult convened experts who specialise in data, digital infrastructure, and public transport to draw upon research and insights into connected digital twins and evaluate how they might support the decarbonisation and improved connectivity of the UK transport system.

Connected digital twins are well placed to deliver significant economic impact and drive the UK as a science and technology superpower.

These scenarios provide the market with a common understanding of the value federated networks of transport digital twins will provide to the public transport system, if we take action to build it.

These four futures are built across two conditions:

Connected intelligence

The measure of how connected digital twins are able to bridge silos, build intelligent understanding, and drive efficiency.

Environmental and social impact

The measure of how connected digital twins are able to mitigate the effects of climate change and build resilience, connectivity, and inclusivity.

Each scenario begins with an introduction to the nature of the existing digital twin landscape before exploring how action or inaction leads to impacts across resilience, safety, efficiency, and passenger agency.

Key insights

Incentivise change to overcome entrenched working cultures.

The establishment of connected digital twins to improve the public transport system is less of an issue of technology, and more an issue of communication and management. Incentivising change by demonstrating the value of connected digital twins is required to enable a new paradigm to be adopted and embraced.

Keeping to full throttle is not driving efficiently.

Any efficient system is dependent, and indeed defined, by its ability to withstand strain. Truly efficient networks are resilient and able to overcome incidents and hazards. Finding the balance between utilising assets and maintaining reserves is key to enabling a truly efficient network.

Resilience involves robustness, agile recovery and evolution.

A resilient system involves three factors. Robustness or resistance to hazards, recovery or system bounce back, and evolution or progressive strengthening. Live awareness, rapid diagnosis, and predictive maintenance can all be enabled through connected digital twins to bake resilience into efficiency.

Translate data into action.

Intelligent understanding doesn't necessarily effect change. By leveraging data skills, it is important to translate data into insight, and insight into action. Utilising understanding is key to improving safety, resilience, efficiency, sustainability, and connectivity.

Transparency enables agency.

The efficiency and environmental impact public transport is significantly affected by the ways people travel. Sharing selected datasets through APIs and enabling MaaS technologies to provide passengers with the agency to make informed decisions on transport options is critical to reducing the carbon output of the network.

Integrate to unlock innovation.

The true power of connected digital twins is not just the intelligent understanding they build but also the opportunities for innovation they provide. Maximising the added value is dependent on enabling new technologies, new processes, and new organisations to enable the improved connectivity and decarbonisation of the public transport system.

Click on each scenario to view details.

ROADMAP

1 Strategy and innovation

Key Contributors

Academia
Industry
Government
Innovation Funding Bodies
Lead
Contributor

Outcomes

  • Strategic innovation plan to ensure a common path of travel for all stakeholders and delivery partners working within the connected digital twin environment
  • Clear understanding in the transport sector of how connected digital twins can provide value with recognised and repeatable value propositions
OutputsActivities

Research and innovation strategy defined for connected digital twins in transport

2023 - 2026
Innovation Funding Bodies is the Lead Contributor.
Government is a Support Contributor.
Industry is a Support Contributor.
Academia is a Support Contributor.
  • Understand the landscape of activities from those engaged in research and innovation relevant to this roadmap, plus key industry stakeholders and consumers of digital twins
  • Carry out digital twin maturity assessment
  • Formulate a connected digital twins research and innovation strategy co-created by TRIB members, including government, funding bodies, and industry
  • Establish forums and frameworks for collaboration on research and development
  • Identify core opportunities that connected digital twins present and develop core use cases to inform innovation strategy

Key milestones defined for achieving an ecosystem of digital twins in transport

2023 - 2032
Innovation Funding Bodies is the Lead Contributor.
Government is a Support Contributor.
Industry is a Support Contributor.
  • Identify key milestone activities and establish the timelines to achieve them, conduct regular reviews and update these

Identified infrastructure and services supporting requirements of connecting digital twins

2024 - 2026
Innovation Funding Bodies is the Lead Contributor.
Government is a Support Contributor.
  • Identify who will provide and maintain those assets and services and establish relevant collaborations
  • Identify underlying infrastructure and services that will support the development and use of digital twins

Relevant Publications

Outcomes

  • Understanding of the types of procurement frameworks that are applicable to connected digital twins
  • Understanding of commercial models that are applicable to connected digital twins
  • Better ways and approaches to create awareness of connected digital twins
  • Value of connected transport digital twins demonstrated in multiple applications and modes
  • Funding security in place to cover the long term maintenance strategy of the operationalised connected digital twin asset
OutputsActivities

Accessible procurement frameworks for connected digital twins

2025 - 2028
Government is the Lead Contributor.
Industry is a Support Contributor.
  • Review of existing framework/contract agreements
  • Design frameworks/contracts for procuring data or connected digital twins

Appropriate routes for the investment and finance community to invest in connected digital twins and provide maintenance and management funding throughout the lifecycle of connected digital twins and their assets

2026 - 2028
Innovation Funding Bodies is the Lead Contributor.
Government is a Support Contributor.
  • Engage with investment and finance community to understand their requirements for investing in connected digital twins and present value propositions
  • Explore how the investment finance community can leverage and benefit from the opportunities that connected digital twins present
  • Design appropriate mechanisms to attract investment from the finance and investment community
  • Design appropriate mechanisms to ensure that funding required to maintain and manage the connected digital twin as an asset is in place

Commercial models in place to address funding needs for connected digital twins including maintenance

2024 - 2026
Innovation Funding Bodies is the Lead Contributor.
Government is a Support Contributor.
Industry is a Support Contributor.
  • Assess short and long term funding needs of connected digital twins
  • Identify challenges and risks for future, based on mapping out current practices
  • Develop relevant commercial and operating models that align with vision, phase within the asset lifecycle, technical capabilities and level of interdependency required with others
  • Digital twin practitioners understand the needs of senior leaders when seeking to raise capital

Marketing strategy in place to communicate achievements in digital twins and attract stakeholders

2026 - 2028
Government is the Lead Contributor.
Industry is a Support Contributor.
  • Develop marketing and communications strategy to showcase progress and attract new stakeholders and investments

Relevant Publications

Outcomes

  • Clarity on which connected digital twins use cases would provide most value for stakeholders, for example improved safety, increased efficiency, better maintenance
  • Connected digital twins use case trials, testing and implementation
  • Connected digital twins are being tested in real world situations, covering ethical, security, resilience, legal, regulatory, commercial and sustainability considerations
OutputsActivities

Baseline for digitised assets to establish the direction for digital twins in the transport sector

2023 - 2025
Government is the Lead Contributor.
Industry is a Support Contributor.
  • Review early adopter case studies and learnings, codify best practice and use in leadership engagement
  • Assess the current level of digitised assets and establish the direction for digitisation of assets in the transport sector and other adjacent sectors

Use cases identified based on customer/industry/government needs and the value gained from combined data

2024 - 2026
Industry is the Lead Contributor.
Academia is a Support Contributor.
Government is a Support Contributor.
Innovation Funding Bodies is a Support Contributor.
  • Identify key stakeholders and relevant use cases based on customer/industry needs within various transport sectors for decarbonisation, improving transport for the user and economic growth
  • Identify relevant use cases on basis of government priorities - to align to government agenda and strengthen case for government funding
  • Identify opportunities for connected digital twins across sectors
  • Review examples and learnings from adjacent sectors (energy, built environment, telecoms), that could complement and intersect with transport related use cases

Business case for use cases that require government funding and for those that industry will invest in

2027 - 2028
Industry is the Lead Contributor.
Government is a Support Contributor.
Innovation Funding Bodies is a Support Contributor.
  • Develop a proposal for a use case trial that enables the creation and testing of an ecosystem of digital twins
  • Develop business case and secure any funding and commitment required from government for identified use cases

Operationalised connected digital twin use cases

2031 - 2035
Government is the Lead Contributor.
Academia is a Support Contributor.
Industry is a Support Contributor.
Innovation Funding Bodies is a Support Contributor.
  • Identify a set of digital twins to connect together in an ecosystem
  • Identify and test a set of prioritised use cases for connected digital twins

Relevant Publications

The TRIB-commissioned Vision and Roadmap, produced by the Connected Places Catapult, consists of workstreams, components, outputs, outcomes and activities, which collectively guide us towards a future in which we achieve the shared vision in 2035.

At the top level, the roadmap shows different workstreams together with their corresponding components. A click on each component opens up the expected output and target delivery date. A further click on ‘Explore this workstream’ presents the output and associated activities, the key contributors and supporting organisations, outcomes, and a selection of relevant publications.

These activities are the building blocks which can be used to achieve the 2035 Vision and have been selected based on those which are likely to have the most impact. The Roadmap has been developed in collaboration with experts from academia, industry and government (further detail on the partners and stakeholder pages), but the list of activities is not exhaustive and prioritisation has been conducted by assessing the greatest potential impact of the activities.

Learn More
WorkstreamComponentTarget output end year
2023-20252026-20302031-2035

1 Strategy and innovation

2 Enabling environment

People, skills and culture

4 Technology and data